No sharing expected in Lecomte Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/19/2012 - New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The annual drive to the Kentucky Derby is well underway and Saturday at Fair Grounds Race Course the Louisiana section of the highway commences with the $175,000 Lecomte Stakes.

The mile and 70 yard event is the first of three stakes in the Big Easy for Kentucky Derby probables. The $300,000 Risen Star Stakes follows on Saturday, February 25 and the $1 million Louisiana Derby concludes this section of the trail on Sunday, April 1.

Leading the 13-horse field is Shared Property, winner of the Arlington- Washington Futurity last September 10 at Arlington Park. The 4-1 favorite will again be ridden by Leandro Goncalves for trainer Tom Amoss from the far outside post.

"He showed me he's the kind of horse who will do whatever you want to (in order to) win and that's the kind of horse you need to win races like this," noted Goncalves after winning the Arlington-Washington Futurity.

Owned by Jerry Namy, Shared Property followed his Arlington Park win with a disappointing sixth-place result in the Breeders' Futurity on October 8 as the 5-2 favorite at Keeneland.

With two wins in three career starts the gelding has banked $71,800.

Co-owner and trainer Al Stall Jr. sends out Seven Lively Sins who has been slotted as the 9-2 second choice. Getting the ride on the colt for the first time is local sensation Rosie Napravnik who guided Pants On Fire to victory in last year's Louisiana Derby. Colt and rider will break from post seven.

With Julien Leparoux in the saddle, Seven Lively Sins was second at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois Stakes on October 30 with a fourth on November 19 in the Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. The colt has earned $96,697 with all four finishes hitting the board.

Listed as the 5-1 third pick in the Lecomte is Exfactor trained by longtime Midwest conditioner Bernie Flint. Owned by Stoneway Farm, the gray colt will start from post four with Shaun Bridgmohan again in the saddle.

Exfactor is coming off a win in last month's Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds as the 3-2 favorite. Last July the colt captured the Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs by nearly three-lengths. He has three wins in four starts for $145,348.

"The man that owns this horse (Jim Stone) has his own farm," Flint said the day after winning the Sugar Bowl. "This colt had showed me some promise since I got him, but he was a little on the small side, so after the Bashford Manor I decided to turn him out for five and a half months and let him grow up and be a horse.

"It used to be, you could give a horse all the time he needed to grow up, but with the money they're giving away these days, with the Breeders' Cup and these other rich races, sometimes owners can't afford to let you do that. Fortunately, Mr. Stone let me take my time with this horse, so hopefully now I have a nice horse for a winter campaign here at Fair Grounds and I've given him the proper time to get him ready for the classic distances that will be coming along later."

Here is the field for the Lecomte from the rail out: Adena's Chance, Marlon St. Julien, 20-1; Ted's Folly, Jose Medina, 10-1; Mr. Bowling, Robby Albarado, 8-1; Exfactor, Shaun Bridgmohan, 5-1; Dan and Sheila, John Velazquez, 6-1; Z Dager, Shane Sellers, 6-1; Seven Lively Sins, Rosie Napravnik, 9-2; Alexander Thegreat, John Jacinto, 30-1; Hammers Terror, James Graham, 6-1; Hero of Order, Iram Diego, 20-1; Chalybeate Springs, Brian Hernandez Jr., 20-1; Capetown Devil, Corey Lanerie, 6-1 and Shared Property, Leandro Goncalves, 4-1.

Adena's Chance and Hero of Order will race as an entry as will Dan and Sheila and Z Dager.

Post-time for the Lecomte is slated for 5:55 p.m. (et).

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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