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09/01/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danny Rocco has yet to picket outside NCAA headquarters in Indianapolis, but if the third Sunday in November goes like the last three years, don't doubt that he and the rest of the Liberty football team will start getting the signs ready.
Rocco and the Flames have felt snubbed on Selection Sunday when his Big South champions of the last three seasons have not gained at-large bids to the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs. They are 26-8 over the last three seasons, including 10-2 overall and 5-0 in the conference in 2008.
This year, the Flames won't have to keep their fingers crossed if they win the Big South title. As the FCS playoffs increase from 16 to 20 teams this season - the first expansion since the field grew from 12 to 16 teams in 1987 - the Big South champion will automatically qualify for the first time.
Liberty, led by quarterback and Big South Preseason Offensive Player of the Year Mike Brown, is favored to win the Big South title. Rocco, for one, says his Flames feel pressure to meet all the lofty expectations surrounding their team.
A lot will happen for Liberty before the field is selected and announced on Nov. 21, beginning with its season opener against St. Francis (Pa.) on Saturday in Lynchburg, Va.
In Five-a-Side - In the Huddle's monthly feature of "five questions, five answers" with an influential person in the FCS - Rocco looks forward to the season ahead and discusses the Big South's new automatic playoff bid.
Let's kick off:
TSN: Were there any questions that your team answered in the preseason that were particularly important?
DR: I think a number of things. One, we came into camp with our two most veteran offensive linemen (left tackle Justin Vargas and right guard Alex Stadler) out. They did not practice in the spring, they were both nursing injuries and surgeries and we were very hopeful that they would be able to get into camp and have productive camps, and they both have.
I'd say secondly the running back position is starting to solidify itself. It's definitely going to be a two- or three-man-job-by-committee with Korrey Davis and SirChauncey Holloway handling the majority of the work, and Chase Barnett certainly had an opportunity to show us what he could do.
Defensively, I'd probably just say our linebacking corps is pretty solid and two-deep, and we were hoping that we'd be able to feel that way as we got ready for the start of the season.
TSN: Conversely, what aspects of your team are you still trying to solidify?
DR: I would say that the thing that I'm still looking for is just a little more consistency on both sides of the ball. Most specifically offensively we are very explosive, but not as efficient in the passing game that I'd like to see us be. But we are very explosive.
Defensively, (there is) still the mindset of we've given up a few too many big chunks of yardage in the summer. That's a function of being able to defend the deep ball and keeping everything in front of us.
TSN: With the Big South getting an automatic playoff bid this year, what does that do to the competitiveness of conference teams?
DR: Yeah, I think it's going to do a lot. I mean, everybody has a definitive prize at the end in terms of what they're playing for, and they have control over that. I know in the past we've been fortunate enough to have won this championship three years in a row. Even the year we were 10-2 and ranked 14th in the country (2008), we weren't invited to a 16-team tournament. So that was a little frustrating. But here we are now this year knowing that the conference champ has an automatic berth. I think it's going to make each and every Saturday afternoon all that much more competitive. I think even when you're looking at games (involving) teams that have a chance to get in versus teams that don't have a chance to get in, those teams that don't have a chance to get in really have a lot to play for in terms of making a statement and maybe ruining the opportunity for those teams that are fighting for that automatic bid."
TSN: Can you break down the Big South race?
DR: I can. I think it's tricky for me to position teams in this league. I think, though, that there are a number of teams that have reasonable reason to believe that they will be competing for a conference championship. Obviously, Stony Brook beat Liberty last year. Last year, Charleston Southern beat Stony Brook and Coastal (Carolina) and played Liberty to a really close game. Coastal's got a lot of guys coming back and a lot of talent. And three years ago they kind of had their run in this league. Gardner-Webb has an awful lot of defensive talent back and skill on offense - they're just breaking in a new quarterback. VMI has an entire defense that's back, and they were good on defense as the year went on last year. They're breaking in a brand new system of offense, which could bear fruit for them and keep them in this hunt. And then Presbyterian's the one team that's kind of on the outside looking in, looking for their first win. They did not get a win last year, but they also know that they've been very competitive in almost all the games and will have a definite opportunity to play spoiler as we get into competition and then to conference play.
TSN: Considering how close your team has come to the playoffs in recent years, would anything less than making the playoffs this year be unsatisfactory to you?
DR: I would say that it's probably a fair thing for you to say. I don't know if I'll say that. But what I think that I have done and that I will continue to do is, as you look at goals for your program I don't care what level you're at - the National Football League, the SEC, the ACC, the Big South - I think the first goal always has to be to win your conference championship. We all have aspirations to be a nationally prominent program and compete for a national championship and do all those things. But first and foremost you have to win your conference championship.
I've been very consistent since the first year that I got here in saying that my primary goal is to win the Big South Conference championship. So in theory I don't need to change my rhetoric, I don't need to change my philosophy or my line of thinking here because the automatic bid's in place. All I need to do is continue doing what we've been doing and focus on that conference championship.
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Dale Carlson wi
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends
We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS. Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned. For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go. As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190). Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet. For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction. On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later. Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick. Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com
New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS.
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”. With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit. Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.
About MySportsbook.com MySportsbook.com is the largest sportsbook and casino on the planet, where millions of adult Americans bet on sports, play poker and enjoy blackjack and other casino games online in a regulated and licensed jurisdiction. Named the "Best US Sports Book" by the industry's top magazine, eGaming Review, MySportsbook.com has been leading the online gaming industry since 1996. Dwarfing its nearest competitors in the US, MySportsbook.com has been the first to achieve every significant industry milestone, from record turnover to active users to number of bets--achieving a peak of fifteen bets per second. As the US online gaming leader, the firm and it's products have been featured on CBS 60 Minutes, CNN, ESPN, Wall Street Journal, Barrons, Financial Times, USA Today and in every major newspaper in the US.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your basketball sportsbook needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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